Ronald Neil
Contributor
Despite their recent success, the Leafs still sit two ranks from dead last in the Eastern conference with 36 points (16 wins and 20 losses) in 40 games played. At the moment, the team is 12 points away from getting the last spot in the playoffs.
If we take a look at the National Hockey League (NHL) season, it’s divided evenly into 82 games. So with just under half of the season played so far, the Leafs have 44 games left to play with a potential 88 points under their belt. On the surface this seems like a lot, but this is where we fall into the mathematical probability trap.
Let’s say, for example, that the team finishes a very respectable 10 games over 0.500, going down the stretch with a record of 24-14-6. Admittedly, this would be out of character for the team, given their record to date and their progress over their last 10 games, but let’s roll with it. With all that in mind, they would have a record of 38-34-10, and a total of 86 points.
What’s so sobering, and arguably disheartening, about this projection is that even with such a finish, the Leafs would only have around a two percent chance of making the playoffs according to sportsclubstats.com.
This dose of reality is calculated by taking into account such factors as total points, total number of teams ahead of the Leafs fighting for the same playoff spot and the average number of points won by those teams that do eventually make it to the playoffs . To have even just over a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, they would need to go 28-12-4 down the stretch, a remarkable achievement for any team.
At the end, it comes down to this: the Toronto Maple Leafs are not making the playoffs this year.
And while this may feel uncomfortable and even pessimistic to mutter in one’s company, it is important to look at the facts.
State of the Leafs Nation:Do the math – they ain’t making it
About the Author
Hey Darren;I think it is great what you are trying to do! It would be a dream come true for me! I have been a Leaf fan from when I was an 8 year old boy. It was just after they won their last cup so obusovily I have a high pain tolerance. The only concern I have if this happens is having too many opinions about how to run things. I live in Windsor Ontario and I have observed how the Wings do things. To me they are a model organization. The reason they are is that they don’t have meddling ownership. Mike Illich knows he doesn’t have a clue how to manage a hockey team so he hires Holland to do it for him and leaves him alone. The problem with us is that we all think we are hockey experts and we think we know how to do Burke’s job for him. How will this work if our dream comes to fruition?